Based upon the pricing this morning (at 9:30 a.m. CST) of the state by state contracts, I am projecting a "most likely" 272-266 Bush win today. This assumes that Bush wins Florida ($54) and Ohio ($55), but loses Iowa (the latter contract is currently priced at $50). If Bush picks up Iowa, it will be 279-259.
The most sane polling-based website I have found is www.realclearpolitics.com. (I call this a "sane" site because it averages polling results, whereas many other websites (e.g., http://www.electoral-vote.com) simply allocate votes in a given state based upon the latest poll in that state.) There, you'll find an electoral college map of the United States, which currently has Bush leading Kerry 227-203. The "toss-up" states are New Hampshire (4 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (21 electoral college votes), Ohio (20 electoral college votes), Florida (27 electoral college votes, Wisconsin (10 electoral college votes), Minnesota (10 electoral college votes), Iowa (7 electoral college votes), and New Mexico (5 electoral college votes). The prediction markets result reported above assumes that Kerry picks up New Hampshire ($33.70), Pennsylvania ($22), Wisconsin ($42), Minnesota ($21.50), and Iowa, whereas Florida, Ohio, and New Mexico ($59.80) go to Bush.
Posted by Jim Garven at November 2, 2004 10:15 AM